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1.FC Monchengladbach vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
3/19/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 22Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach20%
×Draw18%
Germania Ratingen62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.50
Germania Ratingen
2.67

Germania Ratingen creates 78% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
38%
1.FC Monchengladbach or Germania Ratingen
82%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
80%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
9%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
78%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
44%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
19%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
93%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
74%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
25%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
20%
level
18%
Germania Ratingen scores more
62%

Germania Ratingen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: 1.FC Monchengladbach 4–5 Germania Ratingen

Germania Ratingen beat 1.FC Monchengladbach 5-4 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2 in Mönchengladbach.