Germania Halberstadt 1–0 Auerbach: Result & Stats

Germania Halberstadt

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Auerbach

8/10/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 2Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Germania Halberstadt44%

×Draw22%

Auerbach34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania HalberstadtExpected goals in this matchAuerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.70

Germania Halberstadt

1.94

Auerbach

1.70

Germania Halberstadt creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 62 away

2.60

creates per match

1.79

1.60

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt

2.60

Auerbach

1.79

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt

1.60

Auerbach

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

Auerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw

66%

Germania Halberstadt or Auerbach

78%

Draw or Auerbach

56%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+

24%

Auerbach wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals

86%

Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals

58%

Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals

30%

Auerbach 1+ goals

82%

Auerbach 2+ goals

51%

Auerbach 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)

56%

Auerbach (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more

44%

level

22%

Auerbach scores more

34%

Germania Halberstadt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff