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Auerbach vs Germania Halberstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Auerbach
Auerbach
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
3/18/2026Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 17Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Auerbach46%
×Draw24%
Germania Halberstadt30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auerbach
1.73
Germania Halberstadt
1.35

Auerbach creates 28% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

Auerbach
1.85
Germania Halberstadt
1.44

allows per match

Auerbach
1.27
Germania Halberstadt
1.60

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par
Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Germania Halberstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw
70%
Auerbach or Germania Halberstadt
76%
Draw or Germania Halberstadt
54%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+
25%
Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals
82%
Auerbach 2+ goals
52%
Auerbach 3+ goals
25%
Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
74%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
39%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)
61%
Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Germania Halberstadt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Germania Halberstadt attack 1.44 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Auerbach scores more
46%
level
24%
Germania Halberstadt scores more
30%

Auerbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auerbach vs Germania Halberstadt

Auerbach beat Germania Halberstadt 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Arena zur Vogtlandweide in Auerbach.