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Germaneya vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Germaneya
Germaneya
FT
2 – 3
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
3/9/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 20Gradski stadion (Sapareva Banya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Germaneya28%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germaneya
1.22
Chavdar Etropole
1.67

Chavdar Etropole creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 87 away

creates per match

Germaneya
1.09
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Germaneya
1.79
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Germaneya+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germaneya ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Germaneya or draw
52%
Germaneya or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
72%

Winning margin

Germaneya wins by 2+
11%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Germaneya 1+ goals
70%
Germaneya 2+ goals
34%
Germaneya 3+ goals
12%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
81%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
50%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Germaneya (draw refunded)
37%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germaneya at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germaneya attack 1.09 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Germaneya defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Germaneya scores more
28%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
48%

Chavdar Etropole at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Germaneya 2–3 Chavdar Etropole

Chavdar Etropole beat Germaneya 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Sapareva Banya).