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Chavdar Etropole vs Germaneya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
7 – 0
Germaneya
Germaneya
8/22/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 3Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chavdar Etropole68%
×Draw18%
Germaneya14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
2.30
Germaneya
0.94

Chavdar Etropole creates 145% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Germaneya
1.03

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Germaneya
2.53

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Germaneya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Germaneya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
86%
Chavdar Etropole or Germaneya
82%
Draw or Germaneya
32%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
44%
Germaneya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
90%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
67%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
40%
Germaneya 1+ goals
61%
Germaneya 2+ goals
24%
Germaneya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
83%
Germaneya (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Germaneya away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Germaneya defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.30

Germaneya attack 1.03 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
68%
level
18%
Germaneya scores more
14%

Chavdar Etropole at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 7–0 Germaneya

Chavdar Etropole beat Germaneya 7-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).