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Gerena vs Écija — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
3 – 0
Écija
Écija
10/12/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio José Juan Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gerena78%
×Draw16%
Écija6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
2.25
Écija
0.47

Gerena creates 379% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Écija
0.00

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Écija
3.00

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Écija+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Écija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
94%
Gerena or Écija
84%
Draw or Écija
22%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
54%
Écija wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
89%
Gerena 2+ goals
65%
Gerena 3+ goals
39%
Écija 1+ goals
37%
Écija 2+ goals
8%
Écija 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
93%
Écija (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Écija away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Écija attack 0.00 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Gerena scores more
78%
level
16%
Écija scores more
6%

Gerena at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Gerena 3–0 Écija

Gerena beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Juan Romero in Gerena.