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Écija vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Écija
Écija
FT
0 – 3
Gerena
Gerena
2/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija10%
×Draw19%
Gerena71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Écija
0.63
Gerena
2.06

Gerena creates 227% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 76 away

creates per match

Écija
0.00
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Écija
3.00
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Écija+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–214%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Écija or draw
29%
Écija or Gerena
81%
Draw or Gerena
90%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+
2%
Gerena wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals
47%
Écija 2+ goals
13%
Écija 3+ goals
3%
Gerena 1+ goals
87%
Gerena 2+ goals
61%
Gerena 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)
13%
Gerena (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.63

Gerena attack 1.11 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Écija scores more
10%
level
19%
Gerena scores more
71%

Gerena at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Écija 0 – 3 Gerena

Gerena beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Pablo in Écija.