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Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Austria XIII — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
FT
2 – 2
Austria XIII
Austria XIII
6/7/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 28Sportplatz Gerasdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf40%
×Draw23%
Austria XIII37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.68
Austria XIII
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.43
Austria XIII
1.52

allows per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.69
Austria XIII
1.93

finishing

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par
Austria XIII+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf ↓

Austria XIII →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or draw
63%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or Austria XIII
77%
Draw or Austria XIII
60%

Winning margin

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+
20%
Austria XIII wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals
81%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals
50%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals
24%
Austria XIII 1+ goals
80%
Austria XIII 2+ goals
47%
Austria XIII 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)
52%
Austria XIII (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 75 matches

Austria XIII away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.93 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.43 + Austria XIII defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Austria XIII attack 1.52 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more
40%
level
23%
Austria XIII scores more
37%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gerasdorf Stammersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Austria XIII

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf and Austria XIII drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Wien on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Gerasdorf in Gerasdorf.