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Austria XIII vs Gerasdorf Stammersdorf — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Austria XIII
Austria XIII
FT
2 – 3
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
11/11/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 13Sportplatz Kinkplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Austria XIII55%
×Draw21%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria XIII
2.05
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.29

Austria XIII creates 59% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Austria XIII
2.14
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.25

allows per match

Austria XIII
1.32
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.96

finishing

Austria XIII+0.00on par
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria XIII ↓

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Austria XIII or draw
76%
Austria XIII or Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
79%
Draw or Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
45%

Winning margin

Austria XIII wins by 2+
32%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Austria XIII 1+ goals
87%
Austria XIII 2+ goals
61%
Austria XIII 3+ goals
33%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals
72%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals
37%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Austria XIII (draw refunded)
70%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria XIII at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria XIII attack 2.14 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.05

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.25 + Austria XIII defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Austria XIII scores more
55%
level
21%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more
24%

Austria XIII at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Austria XIII will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria XIII vs Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf beat Austria XIII 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Kinkplatz in Wien.