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Georgia vs Denmark — Euro Championship 2024

Georgia
Georgia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denmark
Denmark
9/8/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Georgia25%
×Draw27%
Denmark48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
0.94
Denmark
1.42

Denmark creates 51% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Georgia
0.88
Denmark
2.33

allows per match

Georgia
0.50
Denmark
1.00

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
Denmark+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Denmark →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
52%
Georgia or Denmark
73%
Draw or Denmark
75%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
9%
Denmark wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
61%
Georgia 2+ goals
24%
Georgia 3+ goals
7%
Denmark 1+ goals
76%
Denmark 2+ goals
41%
Denmark 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
34%
Denmark (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Denmark away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 0.88 + Denmark defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Denmark attack 2.33 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Georgia scores more
25%
level
27%
Denmark scores more
48%

Denmark at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
G. LoriaGeorgiaGeorgia · G
8.8

Match Events

42'
Gia Grigalava
67'
C. Gytkjær← K. Dolberg
73'
L. Schöne← P. Højbjerg
86'
V. Gvilia← G. Aburjania
87'
Lasse Schöne
89'
Otar Kakabadze
90'
M. Daushvili← G. Kvilitaia

Possession

39%Georgia

Shots

7Georgia

Pass accuracy

48%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaDenmark
Overview
39%Possession61%
7Total Shots12
2Corners9
23Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots12
1On Target6
3Off Target4
3Blocked2
2Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
359Total Passes553
279Accurate Passes477
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
23Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Georgia vs Denmark

Georgia and Denmark drew 0-0 in Euro Championship on September 8, 2019.

Denmark controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.