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Denmark vs Georgia — Euro Championship 2024

Denmark
Denmark
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Georgia
Georgia
M. Braithwaite 90+3'
Y. Poulsen 73'
K. Dolberg 63', 13'
C. Eriksen 30' (pen)
S. Lobzhanidze 25'
6/10/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Telia Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Denmark68%
×Draw18%
Georgia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark
2.27
Georgia
0.88

Denmark creates 158% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Denmark
1.88
Georgia
1.00

allows per match

Denmark
0.75
Georgia
2.67

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par
Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Denmark or draw
87%
Denmark or Georgia
82%
Draw or Georgia
32%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+
45%
Georgia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals
90%
Denmark 2+ goals
66%
Denmark 3+ goals
39%
Georgia 1+ goals
59%
Georgia 2+ goals
22%
Georgia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)
84%
Georgia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 1.88 + Georgia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Georgia attack 1.00 + Denmark defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Denmark scores more
68%
level
18%
Georgia scores more
13%

Denmark at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. EriksenDenmarkDenmark · M
9.0

Match Events

13'
K. Dolberg↳ S. Kjær
25'
S. Lobzhanidze↳ V. Gvilia
29'
Jaba Kankava
30'
C. EriksenPenalty
36'
M. Jørgensen← S. Kjær
51'
Nika Kvekveskiri
54'
Valeriane Gviliia
58'
G. Papunashvili← L. Parunashvili
62'
D. Wass← R. Skov
63'
K. Dolberg
65'
Giorgi Papunashvili
73'
Y. Poulsen
74'
E. Lobjanidze← O. Kiteishvili
75'
M. Braithwaite← Y. Poulsen
79'
L. Dvali← G. Navalovski
90+3'
M. Braithwaite↳ D. Wass

Possession

68%Denmark

Shots

31Denmark

Pass accuracy

54%Denmark

Statistics

DenmarkGeorgia
Overview
68%Possession32%
31Total Shots9
10Corners3
6Fouls14
Shots
31Total Shots9
9On Target2
15Off Target3
7Blocked4
19Inside Box5
12Outside Box4
Passing
68%Possession32%
707Total Passes318
624Accurate Passes238
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls14
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Euro Championship: Denmark 5–1 Georgia

Denmark beat Georgia 5-1 in Euro Championship on June 10, 2019.

Goals: K. Dolberg (13', 63'), S. Lobzhanidze (25'), C. Eriksen (30' pen), Y. Poulsen (73'), M. Braithwaite (90+3').

Denmark controlled possession (68%) and registered 31 shots to 9.

The match was played at Telia Parken in København.