Georgia 0–1 Albania: Result & Stats

Georgia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albania

K. Asllani 48'

10/14/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 4Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Georgia57%

×Draw26%

Albania17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchAlbania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.70

Georgia

1.52

Albania

0.70

Georgia creates 117% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.92

creates per match

0.78

0.62

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Georgia

1.92

Albania

0.78

allows per match

Georgia

0.62

Albania

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Albania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

83%

Georgia or Albania

74%

Draw or Albania

43%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

30%

Albania wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

78%

Georgia 2+ goals

45%

Georgia 3+ goals

20%

Albania 1+ goals

50%

Albania 2+ goals

16%

Albania 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

77%

Albania (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Albania away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + Albania defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.52

Albania attack 0.78 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Georgia scores more

57%

level

26%

Albania scores more

17%

Georgia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Asllani

Albania · M

8.5

Match Events

48'

K. Asllani↳ I. Tuci

66'

M. Daku← I. Tuci

76'

Lasha Dvali

77'

Mirlind Daku

77'

T. Seferi← N. Bajrami

81'

G. Tsitaishvili← L. Lochoshvili

90+4'

Qazim Laci

90+2'

Mario Mitaj

90+5'

L. Shengelia← Z. Davitashvili

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GeorgiaAlbania

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots10

11Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots10

3On Target4

7Off Target3

6Blocked3

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

632Total Passes366

571Accurate Passes303

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1