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Albania vs Georgia — Friendlies 2026

Albania
Albania
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Georgia
Georgia
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Albania40%
×Draw27%
Georgia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
1.31
Georgia
1.17

Albania creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Albania
1.06
Georgia
1.09

allows per match

Albania
1.25
Georgia
1.55

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albania or draw
67%
Albania or Georgia
73%
Draw or Georgia
60%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
18%
Georgia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
73%
Albania 2+ goals
38%
Albania 3+ goals
14%
Georgia 1+ goals
69%
Georgia 2+ goals
33%
Georgia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
55%
Georgia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.06 + Georgia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Georgia attack 1.09 + Albania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albania scores more
40%
level
27%
Georgia scores more
33%

Albania at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Endri Çekiçi
30'
Grigol Chabradze
46'
S. Cikalleshi← A. Broja
51'
Solomon Kvirkvelia
65'
K. Gjasula← Y. Ramadani
65'
G. Vrioni← R. Manaj
65'
Q. Laçi← E. Çekiçi
66'
M. Kobakhidze← S. Kvirkvelia
66'
S. Lobzhanidze← D. Volkovi
71'
Elseid Hysaj
71'
Nika Kvekveskiri
75'
A. Mekvabishvili← Z. Davitashvili
76'
V. Gvilia← N. Kvekveskiri
77'
E. Lenjani← O. Roshi
80'
Giorgi Mamardashvili
83'
V. Mamuchashvili← G. Chabradze
83'
B. Zivzivadze← V. Qazaishvili

Possession

54%Albania

Shots

10Albania

Statistics

AlbaniaGeorgia
Overview
54%Possession46%
10Total Shots3
7Corners1
13Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots3
4On Target1
6Off Target2
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls8
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
8Offsides2

Match Recap: Albania vs Georgia

Albania and Georgia drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Albania controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 3.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.