Georgia U19 1–3 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Georgia U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Montenegro U19

S. Geguchadze 7'

A. Kostić 88'

A. Camaj 58'

M. Perović 39'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Mikheil Meskhi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Georgia U1935%

×Draw27%

Montenegro U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Georgia U19

1.23

Montenegro U19

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.58

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Georgia U19

1.00

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Georgia U19

1.58

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Georgia U19 or draw

62%

Georgia U19 or Montenegro U19

73%

Draw or Montenegro U19

65%

Winning margin

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Georgia U19 1+ goals

71%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

35%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

13%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

72%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

37%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U19 attack 1.00 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Georgia U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Georgia U19 scores more

35%

level

27%

Montenegro U19 scores more

38%

Montenegro U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Montenegro U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Geguchadze

39'

M. Perović

40'

M. Tadic

45'

49'

57'

58'

59'

I. Aleksic

61'

L. Bubuteishvili← S. Geguchadze

65'

G. Gvasalia← T. Berelidze

65'

L. Natchkebia← S. Samushia

65'

N. Chikovani← V. Salia

75'

D. Ćetković← S. Đukanović

77'

M. Perovic

79'

T. Odikadze← A. Amisulashvili

80'

A. Karadzic

87'

D. Cetkovic

88'

89'

90+5'

90+6'

90+2'

F. Perović← M. Perović

Georgia

Montenegro

1

2

5

3

6

18

▼

Đukanović

7

⚽

▼

Perović

17

Vukanić

11

⚽

Camaj

8

Bulatović

9

▼

1

5

3

17

▼

2

4

6

7

⚽

▼

Geguchadz

8

▼

Berelidze

10

▼

Samushia

9

▼

Salia

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

61'▲L. Bubuteishvili←▼S. Geguchadze

65'▲G. Gvasalia←▼T. Berelidze

65'▲L. Natchkebia←▼S. Samushia

65'▲N. Chikovani←▼V. Salia

79'▲T. Odikadze←▼A. Amisulashvili

Georgia U19 substitutes

11Bubuteishvili20Gvasalia18Natchkebia19Chikovani14Odikadze16Tkeshelashvili12Khelashvili13Tsulaia15Grigalava

Manager: N. Vukčević

57'▲A. Kostić←▼M. Tadić

75'▲D. Ćetković←▼S. Đukanović

90+2'▲F. Perović←▼M. Perović

Montenegro U19 substitutes

21Kostić16Ćetković19Perović22Šekularac15Đukić12Đurović

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Georgia U19 1–3 Montenegro U19

Montenegro U19 beat Georgia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

Goals: S. Geguchadze (7'), M. Perović (39'), A. Camaj (58'), A. Kostić (88').

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhi 2 in Tbilisi.

Georgia U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Georgia U19 1–3 Montenegro U19