Genoa 0–0 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

3/3/2019

Serie A · Round 26Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Genoa46%

×Draw26%

Frosinone28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Genoa

1.48

Frosinone

1.09

Genoa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 31 away

1.19

creates per match

0.84

1.35

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Genoa

1.19

Frosinone

0.84

allows per match

Genoa

1.35

Frosinone

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

72%

Genoa or Frosinone

74%

Draw or Frosinone

54%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

23%

Frosinone wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

77%

Genoa 2+ goals

43%

Genoa 3+ goals

19%

Frosinone 1+ goals

66%

Frosinone 2+ goals

30%

Frosinone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

62%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 119 matches

Frosinone away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.19 + Frosinone defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Frosinone attack 0.84 + Genoa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Genoa scores more

46%

level

26%

Frosinone scores more

28%

Genoa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff