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Frosinone vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Genoa
Genoa
9/30/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 7Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frosinone35%
×Draw26%
Genoa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.27
Genoa
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 118 away

creates per match

Frosinone
0.91
Genoa
0.95

allows per match

Frosinone
1.79
Genoa
1.64

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
61%
Frosinone or Genoa
74%
Draw or Genoa
65%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
15%
Genoa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
72%
Frosinone 2+ goals
36%
Frosinone 3+ goals
14%
Genoa 1+ goals
75%
Genoa 2+ goals
40%
Genoa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
47%
Genoa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Genoa away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 0.91 + Genoa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Genoa attack 0.95 + Frosinone defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Frosinone scores more
35%
level
26%
Genoa scores more
39%

Genoa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frosinone vs Genoa

Genoa beat Frosinone 2-1 in Serie A on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.