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Genoa vs Benevento — Serie A 2018

Genoa
Genoa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Benevento
Benevento
G. Pandev 21', 11'
G. Lapadula 15'
N. Viola 5' (pen)
4/21/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 32Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Genoa44%
×Draw25%
Benevento30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.54
Benevento
1.23

Genoa creates 25% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.19
Benevento
1.11

allows per match

Genoa
1.35
Benevento
1.89

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
70%
Genoa or Benevento
75%
Draw or Benevento
56%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
22%
Benevento wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
79%
Genoa 2+ goals
45%
Genoa 3+ goals
20%
Benevento 1+ goals
71%
Benevento 2+ goals
35%
Benevento 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
59%
Benevento (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 119 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.19 + Benevento defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

Benevento attack 1.11 + Genoa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Genoa scores more
44%
level
25%
Benevento scores more
30%

Genoa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
G. PandevGenoaGenoa · F
8.5

Match Events

4'
Ivan Radovanović
5'
N. ViolaPenalty
11'
G. Pandev
15'
G. Lapadula↳ N. Viola
21'
G. Pandev
29'
Kevin Strootman
35'
L. Caldirola← A. Tuia
71'
M. Pjaca← G. Pandev
71'
E. Shomurodov← M. Destro
78'
E. Goldaniga← D. Biraschi
78'
V. Behrami← K. Strootman
78'
R. Insigne← A. Gaich
78'
B. Dabo← A. Ioniţă
87'
P. Schiattarella← N. Viola
87'
G. Di Serio← G. Lapadula

Possession

63%Genoa

Shots

13Genoa

Pass accuracy

54%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaBenevento
Overview
63%Possession37%
13Total Shots8
3Corners0
14Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target2
2Off Target6
7Blocked0
8Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
619Total Passes366
517Accurate Passes260
84%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Serie A: Genoa 2–2 Benevento

Genoa and Benevento drew 2-2 in Serie A on April 21, 2021.

Goals: N. Viola (5' pen), G. Pandev (11', 21'), G. Lapadula (15').

Genoa controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.