Benevento 1–2 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Genoa

A. Tello 58'

G. Puşcaş 90+4'

M. Coda 12'

1/21/2023

Serie B · Round 21Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benevento41%

×Draw27%

Genoa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Benevento

1.33

Genoa

1.16

Benevento creates 15% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

1.72

creates per match

1.26

1.05

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Genoa

1.26

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Genoa

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

68%

Benevento or Genoa

73%

Draw or Genoa

59%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

19%

Genoa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

74%

Benevento 2+ goals

38%

Benevento 3+ goals

15%

Genoa 1+ goals

69%

Genoa 2+ goals

32%

Genoa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

56%

Genoa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Genoa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Genoa attack 1.26 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benevento scores more

41%

level

27%

Genoa scores more

32%

Benevento at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Sabelli

Genoa · M

7.7

Match Events

1'

Stefan Ilsanker

12'

M. Coda↳ A. Guðmundsson

14'

46'

46'

47'

50'

55'

58'

59'

Pasquale Schiattarella

64'

K. Strootman← M. Badelj

64'

S. Sturaro← A. Guðmundsson

69'

M. Viviani← P. Schiattarella

70'

G. Puşcaş← M. Coda

72'

Stefano Sturaro

78'

A. La Gumina← F. Forte

79'

A. Matturro← A. Vogliacco

79'

G. Yalçın← M. Aramu

90+4'

G. Puşcaş↳ S. Sabelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoGenoa

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots14

3Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots14

1On Target3

6Off Target8

5Blocked3

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

466Total Passes516

382Accurate Passes441

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Benevento vs Genoa

Genoa beat Benevento 2-1 in Serie B on January 21, 2023.

Goals: M. Coda (12'), A. Tello (58'), G. Puşcaş (90+4').

Genoa controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.

Benevento vs Genoa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Benevento vs Genoa