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Genoa U19 vs Frosinone U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U19
Genoa U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Frosinone U19
Frosinone U19
11/11/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 10Stadio Ferruccio Chittolina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Genoa U1951%
×Draw23%
Frosinone U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U19
1.81
Frosinone U19
1.24

Genoa U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Genoa U19
1.60
Frosinone U19
1.24

allows per match

Genoa U19
1.24
Frosinone U19
2.03

finishing

Genoa U19+0.00on par
Frosinone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U19 ↓

Frosinone U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Genoa U19 or draw
74%
Genoa U19 or Frosinone U19
77%
Draw or Frosinone U19
49%

Winning margin

Genoa U19 wins by 2+
28%
Frosinone U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Genoa U19 1+ goals
84%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
54%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
27%
Frosinone U19 1+ goals
71%
Frosinone U19 2+ goals
35%
Frosinone U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Frosinone U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U19 attack 1.60 + Frosinone U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.81

Frosinone U19 attack 1.24 + Genoa U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Genoa U19 scores more
51%
level
23%
Frosinone U19 scores more
26%

Genoa U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Genoa U19 2–0 Frosinone U19

Genoa U19 beat Frosinone U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Ferruccio Chittolina in Valleggia.