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Frosinone U19 vs Genoa U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Frosinone U19
Frosinone U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa U19
Genoa U19
4/13/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 29Stadio Comunale di Ferentino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frosinone U1941%
×Draw25%
Genoa U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone U19
1.46
Genoa U19
1.31

Frosinone U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 50 away

creates per match

Frosinone U19
1.32
Genoa U19
1.26

allows per match

Frosinone U19
1.35
Genoa U19
1.60

finishing

Frosinone U19+0.00on par
Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Frosinone U19 or draw
66%
Frosinone U19 or Genoa U19
75%
Draw or Genoa U19
59%

Winning margin

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+
20%
Genoa U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Frosinone U19 1+ goals
77%
Frosinone U19 2+ goals
43%
Frosinone U19 3+ goals
18%
Genoa U19 1+ goals
73%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
38%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U19 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U19 attack 1.32 + Genoa U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Genoa U19 attack 1.26 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frosinone U19 scores more
41%
level
25%
Genoa U19 scores more
34%

Frosinone U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frosinone U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frosinone U19 vs Genoa U19

Frosinone U19 beat Genoa U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Ferentino in Ferentino.