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Genoa U19 vs Cremonese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Genoa U19
Genoa U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
4/16/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 26Stadio Nazario Gambino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Genoa U1939%
×Draw25%
Cremonese U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U19
1.44
Cremonese U19
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

creates per match

Genoa U19
2.06
Cremonese U19
1.96

allows per match

Genoa U19
0.75
Cremonese U19
0.82

finishing

Genoa U19+0.00on par
Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Genoa U19 or draw
65%
Genoa U19 or Cremonese U19
75%
Draw or Cremonese U19
61%

Winning margin

Genoa U19 wins by 2+
19%
Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Genoa U19 1+ goals
76%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
42%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
18%
Cremonese U19 1+ goals
74%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
39%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U19 attack 2.06 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Genoa U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Genoa U19 scores more
39%
level
25%
Cremonese U19 scores more
35%

Genoa U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Genoa U19 0–1 Cremonese U19

Cremonese U19 beat Genoa U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Nazario Gambino in Arenzano.