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Cremonese U19 vs Genoa U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
FT
1 – 2
Genoa U19
Genoa U19
12/3/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 11Campo Amadio Soldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cremonese U1928%
×Draw21%
Genoa U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U19
1.62
Genoa U19
2.22

Genoa U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cremonese U19
2.31
Genoa U19
2.80

allows per match

Cremonese U19
1.65
Genoa U19
0.93

finishing

Cremonese U19+0.00on par
Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Cremonese U19 or draw
49%
Cremonese U19 or Genoa U19
79%
Draw or Genoa U19
72%

Winning margin

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
13%
Genoa U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Cremonese U19 1+ goals
80%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
48%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
22%
Genoa U19 1+ goals
89%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
65%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U19 attack 2.31 + Genoa U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Genoa U19 attack 2.80 + Cremonese U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cremonese U19 scores more
28%
level
21%
Genoa U19 scores more
51%

Genoa U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Cremonese U19 1–2 Genoa U19

Genoa U19 beat Cremonese U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Amadio Soldi in Cremona.