Genk 0–1 Union St. Gilloise: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union St. Gilloise

2/3/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 24Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Genk41%

×Draw25%

Union St. Gilloise34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

Genk

1.46

Union St. Gilloise

1.31

Genk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.79

creates per match

1.56

1.07

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Genk

1.79

Union St. Gilloise

1.56

allows per match

Genk

1.07

Union St. Gilloise

1.14

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less

Union St. Gilloise-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Genk or draw

66%

Genk or Union St. Gilloise

75%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

59%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

20%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

77%

Genk 2+ goals

43%

Genk 3+ goals

18%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

73%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

38%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

55%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.14 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Genk scores more

41%

level

25%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

34%

Genk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff