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Genk vs SK Beveren — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Genk
Genk
CANC
10:00
SK Beveren
SK Beveren
7/31/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Genk52%
×Draw19%
SK Beveren29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
2.63
SK Beveren
1.96

Genk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Genk
2.83
SK Beveren
2.50

allows per match

Genk
1.42
SK Beveren
2.42

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

SK Beveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Genk or draw
71%
Genk or SK Beveren
81%
Draw or SK Beveren
48%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
33%
SK Beveren wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
93%
Genk 2+ goals
73%
Genk 3+ goals
48%
SK Beveren 1+ goals
86%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
58%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
64%
SK Beveren (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 2.83 + SK Beveren defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.63

SK Beveren attack 2.50 + Genk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Genk scores more
52%
level
19%
SK Beveren scores more
29%

Genk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Genk host SK Beveren

July 31, 2021: Genk take on SK Beveren in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Genk host SK Beveren at Cegeka Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.