Genk 1–1 SK Beveren: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SK Beveren

P. Onuachu 24'

A. Koita 45+2'

12/27/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 19Luminus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Genk56%

×Draw23%

SK Beveren21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchSK Beveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.04

Genk

1.85

SK Beveren

1.04

Genk creates 78% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 50 away

1.90

creates per match

1.08

1.01

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Genk

1.90

SK Beveren

1.08

allows per match

Genk

1.01

SK Beveren

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genk+0.00on par

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

SK Beveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Genk or draw

79%

Genk or SK Beveren

77%

Draw or SK Beveren

44%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

32%

SK Beveren wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

84%

Genk 2+ goals

55%

Genk 3+ goals

28%

SK Beveren 1+ goals

65%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

28%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

73%

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 157 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.80 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.90 + SK Beveren defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

SK Beveren attack 1.08 + Genk defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Genk scores more

56%

level

23%

SK Beveren scores more

21%

Genk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

P. Onuachu↳ B. Heynen

39'

D. Sinani← A. Albanese

45+2'

A. Koita

50'

Dries Wuytens

55'

K. Thorstvedt← P. Hrošovský

72'

B. Limbombe← G. Arteaga

80'

Michael Frey

84'

C. Dessers← P. Onuachu

85'

Daan Heymans

90+2'

J. Efford← M. Frey

90+5'

J. Schryvers← J. Mertens

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GenkSK

Overview

65%Possession35%

6Total Shots6

6Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots6

2On Target2

4Off Target4

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4