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Genk vs Dender — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Genk
Genk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dender
Dender
Oh Hyeon-Gyu 83'
P. Hrošovský 76'
C. Bonsu Baah 53'
T. Arokodare 23'
9/22/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 8Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Genk56%
×Draw22%
Dender22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.92
Dender
1.10

Genk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 34 away

creates per match

Genk
1.91
Dender
1.23

allows per match

Genk
0.98
Dender
1.93

finishing

Genk-0.36scores less
Dender-0.20scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Dender →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Genk or draw
78%
Genk or Dender
78%
Draw or Dender
44%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
33%
Dender wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
85%
Genk 2+ goals
57%
Genk 3+ goals
30%
Dender 1+ goals
67%
Dender 2+ goals
30%
Dender 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
72%
Dender (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.98 · 38 matches

Dender away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.93 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.91 + Dender defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dender attack 1.23 + Genk defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Genk scores more
56%
level
22%
Dender scores more
22%

Genk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
C. Bonsu BaahGenkGenk · M
8.2

Match Events

23'
T. Arokodare
53'
C. Bonsu Baah↳ K. Karetsas
55'
Kobe Cools
59'
R. Oratmangoen← M. Viltard
59'
M. Berte← J. Soladio
59'
D. Acquah← R. Květ
68'
Gilles Ruyssen
70'
D. Hrnčár← G. Ruyssen
74'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu← T. Arokodare
75'
Y. Sor← J. Steuckers
75'
P. Hrošovský← K. Karetsas
76'
P. Hrošovský
80'
I. Bangoura← B. Heynen
83'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu↳ C. Bonsu Baah
84'
L. Hens← K. Fila
87'
K. Nkuba← Z. El Ouahdi

Possession

63%Genk

Shots

28Genk

Pass accuracy

52%Genk

Statistics

GenkDender
Overview
63%Possession37%
28Total Shots5
2.34Expected Goals (xG)0.42
8Corners3
12Fouls7
Shots
28Total Shots5
13On Target2
4Off Target2
11Blocked1
19Inside Box5
9Outside Box0
Passing
63%Possession37%
604Total Passes360
543Accurate Passes295
90%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves9
-1.02Goals Prevented-1.02
Discipline
12Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 4–0 Dender

Genk beat Dender 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 22, 2024.

Goals: T. Arokodare (23'), C. Bonsu Baah (53'), P. Hrošovský (76'), Oh Hyeon-Gyu (83').

Genk controlled possession (63%) and registered 28 shots to 5.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.