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Dender vs Genk — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Dender
Dender
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Genk
Genk
0 Oh Hyeon-Gyu 90+10' (pen)
3/8/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 29DENDER Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Dender31%
×Draw25%
Genk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dender
1.27
Genk
1.56

Genk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Dender
1.14
Genk
1.55

allows per match

Dender
1.57
Genk
1.41

finishing

Dender-0.08on par
Genk+0.08on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dender ↓

Genk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dender or draw
56%
Dender or Genk
75%
Draw or Genk
69%

Winning margin

Dender wins by 2+
13%
Genk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dender 1+ goals
72%
Dender 2+ goals
36%
Dender 3+ goals
14%
Genk 1+ goals
79%
Genk 2+ goals
46%
Genk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dender (draw refunded)
41%
Genk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dender at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 33 matches

Genk away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dender attack 1.14 + Genk defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Genk attack 1.55 + Dender defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dender scores more
31%
level
25%
Genk scores more
44%

Genk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
F. FerraroDenderDender · M
7.9

Match Events

71'
K. Karetsas← P. Hrošovský
75'
R. Oratmangoen← N. Mbamba
78'
M. Berte← A. Scheidler
85'
L. Hens← M. Viltard
85'
D. Hrnčár← D. Sylla
85'
N. Sattlberger← I. Bangoura
85'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu← T. Arokodare
85'
N. Adedeji-Sternberg← C. Bonsu Baah
90+9'
Gilles Ruyssen
90+7'
Noah Adedeji-SternbergPenalty confirmed
90+10'
0 Oh Hyeon-GyuPenalty

Possession

39%Dender

Shots

13Dender

Pass accuracy

47%Dender

Statistics

DenderGenk
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots14
1.53Expected Goals (xG)1.49
2Corners6
11Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots14
2On Target6
7Off Target3
4Blocked5
8Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
311Total Passes478
223Accurate Passes389
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
0.17Goals Prevented0.17
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
5Offsides3

Match Recap: Dender vs Genk

Genk beat Dender 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 8, 2025.

Goals: 0 Oh Hyeon-Gyu (90+10' pen).

Genk controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at DENDER Football Complex in Denderleeuw.