Genk 1–0 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beerschot VA

J. Kayembe 30'

2/1/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 24Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Genk62%

×Draw20%

Beerschot VA18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.04

Genk

2.11

Beerschot VA

1.04

Genk creates 103% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 54 away

1.92

creates per match

1.07

1.01

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Genk

1.92

Beerschot VA

1.07

allows per match

Genk

1.01

Beerschot VA

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genk+0.00on par

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Genk or draw

82%

Genk or Beerschot VA

80%

Draw or Beerschot VA

38%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

38%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

88%

Genk 2+ goals

62%

Genk 3+ goals

35%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

65%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

28%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

78%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.01 · 155 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.92 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Genk defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Genk scores more

62%

level

20%

Beerschot VA scores more

18%

Genk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Kayembe

Genk · D

8.3

Match Events

30'

J. Kayembe

67'

M. Weymans← A. Colassin

69'

Hakim Sahabo

74'

Welat CagroCard upgrade

75'

Welat Cagro

78'

D. Huiberts← T. Reyners

82'

N. Adedeji-Sternberg← C. Bonsu Baah

82'

K. Nkuba← Z. El Ouahdi

83'

Oh Hyeon-Gyu← K. Karetsas

87'

Bryan Heynen

87'

F. Krüger← A. Kosiah

90+2'

Brian Plat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenkBeerschot

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots5

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.29

7Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots5

5On Target0

7Off Target3

5Blocked2

15Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

676Total Passes377

621Accurate Passes307

92%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0