Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Genk vs Beerschot VA — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
2/21/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 27Luminus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Genk59%
×Draw22%
Beerschot VA18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.85
Beerschot VA
0.92

Genk creates 101% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Genk
1.79
Beerschot VA
0.77

allows per match

Genk
1.07
Beerschot VA
1.91

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less
Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Genk or draw
82%
Genk or Beerschot VA
78%
Draw or Beerschot VA
41%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
34%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
84%
Genk 2+ goals
55%
Genk 3+ goals
28%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
60%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
23%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
76%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Genk scores more
59%
level
22%
Beerschot VA scores more
18%

Genk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 1–2 Beerschot VA

Beerschot VA beat Genk 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Luminus Arena in Genk.