Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

General Velásquez vs Deportes Vallenar — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Vallenar
Deportes Vallenar
9/26/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

General Velásquez55%
×Draw25%
Deportes Vallenar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.58
Deportes Vallenar
0.83

General Velásquez creates 90% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 11 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Deportes Vallenar
0.64

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Deportes Vallenar
1.73

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Deportes Vallenar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Deportes Vallenar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
80%
General Velásquez or Deportes Vallenar
75%
Draw or Deportes Vallenar
45%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
29%
Deportes Vallenar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
79%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
47%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
21%
Deportes Vallenar 1+ goals
56%
Deportes Vallenar 2+ goals
20%
Deportes Vallenar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
74%
Deportes Vallenar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Deportes Vallenar away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Deportes Vallenar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Deportes Vallenar attack 0.64 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

General Velásquez scores more
55%
level
25%
Deportes Vallenar scores more
20%

General Velásquez at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: General Velásquez 0–0 Deportes Vallenar

General Velásquez and Deportes Vallenar drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.