Deportes Vallenar 1–2 General Velásquez

Deportes Vallenar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

General Velásquez

1/6/2021

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Deportes Vallenar37%

×Draw30%

General Velásquez33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes VallenarExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.03

Deportes Vallenar

1.11

General Velásquez

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 77 away

0.91

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Deportes Vallenar

0.91

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Deportes Vallenar

1.00

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Vallenar+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Vallenar ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Vallenar or draw

67%

Deportes Vallenar or General Velásquez

70%

Draw or General Velásquez

63%

Winning margin

Deportes Vallenar wins by 2+

15%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportes Vallenar 1+ goals

67%

Deportes Vallenar 2+ goals

30%

Deportes Vallenar 3+ goals

10%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

64%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

28%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Vallenar (draw refunded)

53%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Vallenar at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Vallenar attack 0.91 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Deportes Vallenar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportes Vallenar scores more

37%

level

30%

General Velásquez scores more

33%

Deportes Vallenar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportes Vallenar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff