General Velásquez 1–2 Deportes Limache

General Velásquez

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Deportes Limache

Junio Lopes 52'

D. Castro 45+2'

M. Flores 28'

9/30/2023

Segunda División · Round 24Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

General Velásquez38%

×Draw28%

Deportes Limache33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.10

General Velásquez

1.20

Deportes Limache

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 35 away

1.43

creates per match

1.17

1.03

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

Deportes Limache

1.17

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

Deportes Limache

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

67%

General Velásquez or Deportes Limache

72%

Draw or Deportes Limache

62%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

16%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

70%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

34%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

12%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

67%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

30%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

53%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportes Limache attack 1.17 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

General Velásquez scores more

38%

level

28%

Deportes Limache scores more

33%

General Velásquez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

M. Flores

45+2'

D. Castro

46'

D. Aravena← M. Pérez

46'

J. Gaete← B. Castañeda

52'

Junio Lopes

58'

M. Zamora← M. Flores

61'

C. Cisternas← G. Mosquera

61'

M. Villablanca← J. Tobar

81'

C. Vilches← J. Pavez

87'

W. Gama← K. Mundaca

General

Deportes

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Silva

46'▲D. Aravena←▼M. Pérez

46'▲J. Gaete←▼B. Castañeda

61'▲C. Cisternas←▼G. Mosquera

61'▲M. Villablanca←▼J. Tobar

81'▲C. Vilches←▼J. Pavez

General Velásquez substitutes

AravenaGaeteCisternasVillablancaVilchesLagosMartínez

Manager: V. Rivero

58'▲M. Zamora←▼M. Flores

87'▲W. Gama←▼K. Mundaca

Deportes Limache substitutes

ZamoraGamaEstradaCampestriniRetamalesVásquezCartagena