Deportes Limache 2–0 General Velásquez

Deportes Limache

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

General Velásquez

5/20/2023

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Limache49%

×Draw25%

General Velásquez26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.06

Deportes Limache

1.56

General Velásquez

1.06

Deportes Limache creates 47% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 77 away

1.80

creates per match

1.06

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Deportes Limache

1.80

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Deportes Limache

1.06

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

74%

Deportes Limache or General Velásquez

75%

Draw or General Velásquez

51%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

25%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

79%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

46%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

21%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

65%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

29%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

65%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.80 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Deportes Limache defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

49%

level

25%

General Velásquez scores more

26%

Deportes Limache at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportes Limache 2–0 General Velásquez

Deportes Limache beat General Velásquez 2-0 in Segunda División on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.

Deportes Limache vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda División: Deportes Limache 2–0 General Velásquez