General Velásquez 0–0 D. Puerto Montt

General Velásquez

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

D. Puerto Montt

9/7/2025

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

General Velásquez36%

×Draw27%

D. Puerto Montt37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchD. Puerto Montt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

General Velásquez

1.21

D. Puerto Montt

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 25 away

1.43

creates per match

1.44

1.03

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

D. Puerto Montt

1.44

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

D. Puerto Montt

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

D. Puerto Montt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

63%

General Velásquez or D. Puerto Montt

73%

Draw or D. Puerto Montt

64%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

15%

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

70%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

34%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

12%

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals

71%

D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals

35%

D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

49%

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.44 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

General Velásquez scores more

36%

level

27%

D. Puerto Montt scores more

37%

D. Puerto Montt at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff