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D. Puerto Montt vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
5/26/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

D. Puerto Montt55%
×Draw25%
General Velásquez20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Puerto Montt
1.64
General Velásquez
0.89

D. Puerto Montt creates 84% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 77 away

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt
1.96
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt
0.72
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw
80%
D. Puerto Montt or General Velásquez
75%
Draw or General Velásquez
45%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
30%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
81%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
49%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
23%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
59%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
22%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
73%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.96 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.64

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more
55%
level
25%
General Velásquez scores more
20%

D. Puerto Montt at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: D. Puerto Montt 0–0 General Velásquez

D. Puerto Montt and General Velásquez drew 0-0 in Segunda División on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue in Puerto Montt.