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General Velásquez vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Concepción
Concepción
2/26/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

General Velásquez42%
×Draw27%
Concepción31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.37
Concepción
1.15

General Velásquez creates 19% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Concepción
1.27

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Concepción
1.31

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
69%
General Velásquez or Concepción
73%
Draw or Concepción
58%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
20%
Concepción wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
75%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
40%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
16%
Concepción 1+ goals
68%
Concepción 2+ goals
32%
Concepción 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
57%
Concepción (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Concepción attack 1.27 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

General Velásquez scores more
42%
level
27%
Concepción scores more
31%

General Velásquez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: General Velásquez 1–1 Concepción

General Velásquez and Concepción drew 1-1 in Segunda División on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.