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Concepción vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Concepción
Concepción
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
7/9/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Concepción41%
×Draw28%
General Velásquez32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concepción
1.28
General Velásquez
1.09

Concepción creates 17% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 77 away

creates per match

Concepción
1.25
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

Concepción
1.12
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Concepción or draw
68%
Concepción or General Velásquez
72%
Draw or General Velásquez
59%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+
18%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals
72%
Concepción 2+ goals
37%
Concepción 3+ goals
14%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
66%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
30%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)
56%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.25 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Concepción defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Concepción scores more
41%
level
28%
General Velásquez scores more
32%

Concepción at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Concepción 2 – 1 General Velásquez

Concepción beat General Velásquez 2-1 in Segunda División on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.