General Velásquez 1–1 Colina: Result & Stats

General Velásquez

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colina

D. Carrasco 58'

N. Higueras 63'

10/4/2020

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

General Velásquez49%

×Draw27%

Colina25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchColina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.93

General Velásquez

1.43

Colina

0.93

General Velásquez creates 54% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

0.82

1.03

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

Colina

0.82

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

Colina

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Colina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Colina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

75%

General Velásquez or Colina

73%

Draw or Colina

51%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

24%

Colina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

76%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

42%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

17%

Colina 1+ goals

61%

Colina 2+ goals

24%

Colina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

66%

Colina (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Colina away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Colina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

Colina attack 0.82 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

General Velásquez scores more

49%

level

27%

Colina scores more

25%

General Velásquez at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

A. Yañez← J. Canales

58'

K. Serrano← L. Abarca

58'

D. Carrasco

63'

N. Higueras

65'

J. Maulen← Jorge Muñoz

65'

L. Sanhueza← R. Riquelme

70'

C. Fuentes← R. Galvez

70'

M. Villablanca← C. Penroz

82'

L. Celis← M. Sandoval

82'

J. Tobar← D. Carrasco

85'

B. Arraño← M. Bizama

General

Colina

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carrasco

Uribe

Manager: C. Bustamante

58'▲K. Serrano←▼L. Abarca

70'▲C. Fuentes←▼R. Galvez

70'▲M. Villablanca←▼C. Penroz

82'▲L. Celis←▼M. Sandoval

82'▲J. Tobar←▼D. Carrasco

General Velásquez substitutes

SerranoFuentesVillablancaCelisTobar

Manager: R. Meléndez

40'▲A. Yañez←▼J. Canales

65'▲J. Maulen←▼Jorge Muñoz

65'▲L. Sanhueza←▼R. Riquelme

85'▲B. Arraño←▼M. Bizama

Colina substitutes

YañezMaulenSanhuezaArraño