Colina 1–2 General Velásquez: Result & Stats

Colina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

General Velásquez

N. Astete 2'

P. Troncoso 86' (pen)

J. Abarca 59'

7/26/2021

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de Colina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colina39%

×Draw26%

General Velásquez35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColinaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Colina

1.39

General Velásquez

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 77 away

1.46

creates per match

1.06

1.57

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Colina

1.46

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Colina

1.57

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colina+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colina ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Colina or draw

65%

Colina or General Velásquez

74%

Draw or General Velásquez

61%

Winning margin

Colina wins by 2+

18%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Colina 1+ goals

75%

Colina 2+ goals

40%

Colina 3+ goals

16%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

73%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

38%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Colina (draw refunded)

52%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colina at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colina attack 1.46 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Colina defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colina scores more

39%

level

26%

General Velásquez scores more

35%

Colina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

46'

59'

66'

66'

L. Cisterna← C. Rodríguez

77'

W. Cid← J. Uribe

82'

S. Astudillo← M. Pérez

86'

P. TroncosoPenalty

87'

L. Carvajal← D. Carvajal

89'

I. Cataldo← M. Sandoval

89'

J. Tobar← P. Troncoso

Colina

General

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Viale

66'▲J. Sierra←▼G. Perez

66'▲L. Cisterna←▼C. Rodríguez

87'▲L. Carvajal←▼D. Carvajal

Colina substitutes

SierraCisternaCarvajalVilchesCorderoHernándezCorrea

Manager: M. Riffo

46'▲F. Durán←▼T. Pino

77'▲W. Cid←▼J. Uribe

82'▲S. Astudillo←▼M. Pérez

89'▲I. Cataldo←▼M. Sandoval

89'▲J. Tobar←▼P. Troncoso

General Velásquez substitutes

DuránCidAstudilloCataldoTobarAbarcaSalinas

Segunda División: Colina 1–2 General Velásquez

General Velásquez beat Colina 2-1 in Segunda División on July 26, 2021.

Goals: N. Astete (2'), J. Abarca (59'), P. Troncoso (86' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Colina in Colina.

Colina vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Colina 1–2 General Velásquez