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General Lamadrid vs Berazategui — Primera C 2026

General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Berazategui
Berazategui
9/28/2025Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Enrique Sexto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

General Lamadrid41%
×Draw28%
Berazategui31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Lamadrid
1.25
Berazategui
1.04

General Lamadrid creates 20% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 143 away

creates per match

General Lamadrid
1.31
Berazategui
1.24

allows per match

General Lamadrid
0.84
Berazategui
1.20

finishing

General Lamadrid+0.00on par
Berazategui+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Lamadrid ↓

Berazategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

General Lamadrid or draw
69%
General Lamadrid or Berazategui
72%
Draw or Berazategui
59%

Winning margin

General Lamadrid wins by 2+
18%
Berazategui wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

General Lamadrid 1+ goals
71%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
36%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
13%
Berazategui 1+ goals
65%
Berazategui 2+ goals
28%
Berazategui 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
57%
Berazategui (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Lamadrid at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 140 matches

Berazategui away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Lamadrid attack 1.31 + Berazategui defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Berazategui attack 1.24 + General Lamadrid defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

General Lamadrid scores more
41%
level
28%
Berazategui scores more
31%

General Lamadrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "General Lamadrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Lamadrid vs Berazategui

General Lamadrid beat Berazategui 2-0 in Primera C on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Sexto.