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Berazategui vs General Lamadrid — Primera C 2026

Berazategui
Berazategui
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
8/13/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 7Estadio Norman Lee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Berazategui45%
×Draw28%
General Lamadrid27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berazategui
1.35
General Lamadrid
0.97

Berazategui creates 39% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

creates per match

Berazategui
1.35
General Lamadrid
1.01

allows per match

Berazategui
0.93
General Lamadrid
1.36

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par
General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

General Lamadrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw
73%
Berazategui or General Lamadrid
72%
Draw or General Lamadrid
55%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+
21%
General Lamadrid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals
74%
Berazategui 2+ goals
39%
Berazategui 3+ goals
15%
General Lamadrid 1+ goals
62%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
25%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)
63%
General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.35 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Berazategui defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Berazategui scores more
45%
level
28%
General Lamadrid scores more
27%

Berazategui at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berazategui vs General Lamadrid

Berazategui beat General Lamadrid 2-1 in Primera C on August 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Norman Lee in Berazategui, Provincia de Buenos Aires.