General Lamadrid 3–1 Argentino Rosario

General Lamadrid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Argentino Rosario

4/7/2025

Primera C · Round 5Estadio Enrique VI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

General Lamadrid44%

×Draw28%

Argentino Rosario28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General LamadridExpected goals in this matchArgentino Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

General Lamadrid

1.31

Argentino Rosario

0.98

General Lamadrid creates 34% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 47 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

0.84

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

General Lamadrid

1.31

Argentino Rosario

1.11

allows per match

General Lamadrid

0.84

Argentino Rosario

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Argentino Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Lamadrid ↓

Argentino Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

General Lamadrid or draw

72%

General Lamadrid or Argentino Rosario

72%

Draw or Argentino Rosario

56%

Winning margin

General Lamadrid wins by 2+

20%

Argentino Rosario wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

General Lamadrid 1+ goals

73%

General Lamadrid 2+ goals

38%

General Lamadrid 3+ goals

14%

Argentino Rosario 1+ goals

62%

Argentino Rosario 2+ goals

26%

Argentino Rosario 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)

61%

Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Lamadrid at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 140 matches

Argentino Rosario away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Lamadrid attack 1.31 + Argentino Rosario defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Argentino Rosario attack 1.11 + General Lamadrid defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

General Lamadrid scores more

44%

level

28%

Argentino Rosario scores more

28%

General Lamadrid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "General Lamadrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff