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General Caballero vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
2 – 0
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
10/16/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 33Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

General Caballero56%
×Draw23%
Fulgencio Yegros21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.81
Fulgencio Yegros
1.03

General Caballero creates 76% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 48 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
Fulgencio Yegros
0.90

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
Fulgencio Yegros
1.60

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
79%
General Caballero or Fulgencio Yegros
77%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
44%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
31%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
84%
General Caballero 2+ goals
54%
General Caballero 3+ goals
27%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
64%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
28%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
72%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

General Caballero scores more
56%
level
23%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
21%

General Caballero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: General Caballero 2–0 Fulgencio Yegros

General Caballero beat Fulgencio Yegros 2-0 in Division Intermedia on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.