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Fulgencio Yegros vs General Caballero — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
FT
1 – 3
General Caballero
General Caballero
R. Sanabria 90+2'
R. Esteban 60'
M. Romero 48'
T. S. Arce Villaverde 47'
7/4/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros33%
×Draw28%
General Caballero39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.14
General Caballero
1.27

General Caballero creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 53 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
General Caballero
1.25

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.28
General Caballero
1.42

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
61%
Fulgencio Yegros or General Caballero
72%
Draw or General Caballero
67%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
13%
General Caballero wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
68%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
32%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
11%
General Caballero 1+ goals
72%
General Caballero 2+ goals
36%
General Caballero 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
46%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

General Caballero attack 1.25 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
33%
level
28%
General Caballero scores more
39%

General Caballero at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
T. S. Arce Villaverde
48'
M. Romero
60'
R. Esteban
90+2'
R. Sanabria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Fulgencio Yegros 1–3 General Caballero

General Caballero beat Fulgencio Yegros 3-1 in Division Intermedia on July 4, 2021.

Goals: T. S. Arce Villaverde (47'), M. Romero (48'), R. Esteban (60'), R. Sanabria (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros in Ñemby.