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General Caballero vs Deportivo Liberacion — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
1 – 1
Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
8/26/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Hugo Bogado Vaceque (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

General Caballero55%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Liberacion21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.77
Deportivo Liberacion
1.01

General Caballero creates 75% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
Deportivo Liberacion
0.87

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
Deportivo Liberacion
1.53

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Deportivo Liberacion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
79%
General Caballero or Deportivo Liberacion
77%
Draw or Deportivo Liberacion
45%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
83%
General Caballero 2+ goals
53%
General Caballero 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Deportivo Liberacion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Liberacion attack 0.87 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

General Caballero scores more
55%
level
23%
Deportivo Liberacion scores more
21%

General Caballero at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: General Caballero 1–1 Deportivo Liberacion

General Caballero and Deportivo Liberacion drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Bogado Vaceque (Asunción).