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Deportivo Liberacion vs General Caballero — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
0 – 1
General Caballero
General Caballero
5/20/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion41%
×Draw25%
General Caballero34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.48
General Caballero
1.32

Deportivo Liberacion creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
General Caballero
1.25

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
General Caballero
1.42

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
66%
Deportivo Liberacion or General Caballero
75%
Draw or General Caballero
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
20%
General Caballero wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
19%
General Caballero 1+ goals
73%
General Caballero 2+ goals
38%
General Caballero 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
55%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

General Caballero attack 1.25 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
41%
level
25%
General Caballero scores more
34%

Deportivo Liberacion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Liberacion vs General Caballero

General Caballero beat Deportivo Liberacion 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).