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General Caballero vs Cerro Porteno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
2/4/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 4Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

General Caballero25%
×Draw25%
Cerro Porteno50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.02
Cerro Porteno
1.57

Cerro Porteno creates 54% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 96 away

creates per match

General Caballero
1.05
Cerro Porteno
1.66

allows per match

General Caballero
1.48
Cerro Porteno
0.98

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
50%
General Caballero or Cerro Porteno
75%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
75%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
9%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
64%
General Caballero 2+ goals
27%
General Caballero 3+ goals
8%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
79%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
46%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
33%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 44 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 1.05 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cerro Porteno attack 1.66 + General Caballero defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

General Caballero scores more
25%
level
25%
Cerro Porteno scores more
50%

Cerro Porteno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Caballero vs Cerro Porteno

General Caballero and Cerro Porteno drew 2-2 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.