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Cerro Porteno vs General Caballero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
General Caballero
General Caballero
4/29/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 15Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cerro Porteno54%
×Draw26%
General Caballero21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Porteno
1.54
General Caballero
0.85

Cerro Porteno creates 81% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 44 away

creates per match

Cerro Porteno
1.79
General Caballero
0.89

allows per match

Cerro Porteno
0.82
General Caballero
1.30

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw
79%
Cerro Porteno or General Caballero
74%
Draw or General Caballero
46%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
28%
General Caballero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
79%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
45%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
20%
General Caballero 1+ goals
57%
General Caballero 2+ goals
21%
General Caballero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
72%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 97 matches

General Caballero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.79 + General Caballero defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

General Caballero attack 0.89 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more
54%
level
26%
General Caballero scores more
21%

Cerro Porteno at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerro Porteno vs General Caballero

Cerro Porteno beat General Caballero 4-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.