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General Caballero vs 2 de Mayo — Division Intermedia 2026

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
2 – 1
2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
8/8/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

General Caballero51%
×Draw24%
2 de Mayo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.71
2 de Mayo
1.14

General Caballero creates 50% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
2 de Mayo
1.12

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
2 de Mayo
1.40

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
2 de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

2 de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
75%
General Caballero or 2 de Mayo
76%
Draw or 2 de Mayo
49%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
27%
2 de Mayo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
82%
General Caballero 2+ goals
51%
General Caballero 3+ goals
24%
2 de Mayo 1+ goals
68%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
32%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
67%
2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

2 de Mayo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.71

2 de Mayo attack 1.12 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

General Caballero scores more
51%
level
24%
2 de Mayo scores more
25%

General Caballero at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: General Caballero 2–1 2 de Mayo

General Caballero beat 2 de Mayo 2-1 in Division Intermedia on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.