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2 de Mayo vs General Caballero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
General Caballero
General Caballero
3/8/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

2 de Mayo38%
×Draw30%
General Caballero32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.10
General Caballero
0.99

2 de Mayo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 44 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
0.91
General Caballero
0.89

allows per match

2 de Mayo
1.09
General Caballero
1.30

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
68%
2 de Mayo or General Caballero
70%
Draw or General Caballero
62%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
15%
General Caballero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
67%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
30%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
10%
General Caballero 1+ goals
63%
General Caballero 2+ goals
26%
General Caballero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
54%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

General Caballero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 0.91 + General Caballero defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

General Caballero attack 0.89 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
38%
level
30%
General Caballero scores more
32%

2 de Mayo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 2 de Mayo vs General Caballero

2 de Mayo and General Caballero drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Río Parapití in Pedro Juan Caballero.